September 20th, 2007 → 10:32 am @ Seth Mnookin // No Comments
My last post was on September 16 — last Sunday, which, as it happens, was the day after the Sox’s 10-1 win. They haven’t won since — that’s four straight games, for those keeping track at home — and the Yankees haven’t lost since. There are two possible reasons for this: 1. I am being punished for the decrease in posting frequency, or 2. I am being punished for defending JD Drew. Drew hit a homer last night, so I refuse to believe that’s the cause. So I’m sticking with 1. Ergo, here’s a post. Now: enough of this crap. Let’s finish this thing.
Post Categories: 2007 Spring Training & Losing streaks & Oblique References to Yom Kippur
Bill Pratt
17 years ago
It is not your fault; I am solely and completely responsible here. I wish my login was anonymous but here goes….. I actually created and ordered Division Championship T-shirts for a combination friend’s birthday and clinch party.
Everyone feel free to rip into me as appropriate.
The only thing that I can do is offer the following number crunching to try and ease the pain…..
When the Sox lost 3 or more in a row this season on…..
June 3rd to 6th lost 4 in a row and then went 6-3 in their next 9 games….. (5 home and 4 away)
June 25th to June 27th lost 3 in a row and then went 5-4 in their next 9 games…. (7 home and 2 away)
July 6th to 8th lost 3 in a row and then went 4-5 in their next 9 games…. (9 home and 0 away)
July 16th to 18th lost 3 in a row and then went 8-1 in their next 9 games…. (4 home and 6 away)
August 28th to 31st lost 4 in a row and then went 7-2 in their next 9 games…. (6 home and 4 away)
This averages to be 6-3 after losing streaks of 3 or more in a row and it is worth noting they have NOT lost 5 in a row all season long….
When the Yankees have gone 8-2 (or better) over 10 games this season on….
June 4th to 15th went 9-1 and then went 3-7 in next 10 games….. (7 home and 3 away)
July 13th to 22nd went 8-2 and then went 6-4 in next 10 games….. (5 home and 5 away)
August 1st to 12th went 8-2 and then went 5-5 in next 10 games…. (4 home and 6 away)
This averages to be 5-5 (rounding up in they’re favor from 4.6- 5.4) after going 8-2 in 10 game stretches.
The Yankees just went 8-2 from September 4th to 15th and have won another 4 in a row since. With 10 games left to play, they are likely to cool off at least a little.
Also, the Red Sox have 6 of 9 at home and the Yankees have only 4 of 10 at home remaining.
With all this data, it is more than reasonable to believe that the Sox could go 6-3 and the Yankees could go 7-3 allowing Sox to win the division by 1 game.
Please accept my sincere apologies for the blatant jinx.
rog
17 years ago
I took a picture of my cat wearing a novelty Red Sox miniature helmet at the exact moment that Ortiz hit the walk-off homer against the D-Rays and I prominently displayed that pic near the television during the Yankees series as a good luck charm. Obviously it didn’t work that well and my wife warned that I should only use the pic in must-win games. It’s still sitting on the coffee table so go ahead and blame me for the recent losing streak. I’ve decided to hide the pic in the deepest, darkest corner of the apartment and will only summon its powers during elimination games.
modonnel
17 years ago
Am I the only one in out there that would prefer to go into the postseason with low expectations and have the Yankees be the odds on fave and have the burden of those expectations?
Let our players get healthy and I think we’ll be able to turn some of those 1 run losses to the Yanks into 1 run wins.
rln2433
17 years ago
Man, these year’s edition looks completely wiped out. Injuries, dead arms, no fighting spirit, brain dead manager, catcher who strikes out a ton but loves to call fastball after fastball….
The talent just isn’t there as compared to other teams. The Sox have played .500 ball since ealry June and while you can point to streaks here and there, that’s pretty much what they are at this point. They needed bats and picked up no one of any consequence. They needed relief and picked up what they thought would cement their pen and for whatever reason it didn’t work out. (Good luck pitching Gagne to teams as a top closer, Scotty!!!)
Oh well, maybe next year.
rog
17 years ago
RLN, you gotta believe!!! Last year’s Cards team proved to me that the best team doesn’t win (even their own division). The Yankees are playing bad teams that are rolling over for them (I’m hoping the Twins and A’s do the same for the Sox later this month, actually). The division is huge, but if they don’t win it, that’s cool. Take the wild card and use the underdog feeling to feed off of it and go on a win streak. Get ’em healthy and back into the playoffs…just get in and hope that the pitching shows up and kicks ass.
Gee
17 years ago
Am I the only one in out there that would prefer to go into the postseason with low expectations and have the Yankees be the odds on fave and have the burden of those expectations?
Personally I’d like to go into the postseason as the 800-pound gorilla with all the momentum.
I will note, however, that just a few weeks back when we still had The Best Record in Baseball I did a little research. It seems that, of the last sixteen World Series, only one was won by the team that had TBRIB (’98 Yankees). Pretty astounding, no? And–God forbid we should lose the division–but we all know how strong wild card teams have been over the last decade or so.
V06
17 years ago
Amazing how Gagne can go from mediocre to flat-out-sucks so quickly – all the while with Tito sitting on the bench, sitting on his hands, rockin’ like Leo Mazzone. Surreal.
Sox are circling the drain.
And rog.. never, ever take pictures of cats wearing novelty hats. Perhaps they will seem to tolerate the indignity, but deep down, they will loathe you and hope to see you suffer for subjecting them to the humilation. Don’t unleash the fury of a feline.
rln2433
17 years ago
Too many people are still talking about the team that went 36-16 to start the year. Since that great start they have gone 54-47 and the Yankees have owned them to the tune of 9-3. That’s just a fact. Too many easy outs, bad situational hitting, a refusal by Francona to adapt his team to its current situation, etc.
I refuse to be a Kool Aid drinker here. This is not the same team that started the year, guys are hurt, tired and not willing to adapt their game to current realities. Francona looks lost right now (Papelbon can’t bail out Gag-Me but he’s gonna come in with tha bases loaded and the team trailing the next day????, Tek hitting 6th or 7th???, Ellsbury not running at will???) as well.
This was the year for them to go deep in the playoffs and for various reasons they have come up short. Doesn’t make anyone a bad guy but you have to watch this team with a sense of detachment otherwise they will eat you alive.
Gee
17 years ago
That’s just a fact.
Well, it’s also a fact that they had a shitty June and rebounded after the All-Star break. In fact their post-ABS record is still .561 post-meltdown and was around .600 until less than two weeks ago. And even judging Francona in the harshest light and 20/20 hindsight, I can’t account most of the recent losses to anything he did, didn’t do, or could have done. Certainly none of the things cited above–e.g., Paps giving up the slam came when we were down a run already. Dumb move to bring him in? Maybe. But it didn’t lose the game.
If that makes me a Kool-Aid drinker, so be it.
tinisoli
17 years ago
“And even judging Francona in the harshest light and 20/20 hindsight, I can’t account most of the recent losses to anything he did, didn’t do, or could have done.”
How about leaving Gagné out there on the mound even though it was clear that he was unraveling, overthrowing, and utterly devoid of confidence? Francona enabled Gagné to lose the game. It’s hard for a manager to do anything dumber than leaving a pitcher in way too long. That’s certainly a loss that Francona helped along. It was Grady Little Part II, and I really thought he’d outgrown that sort of thinking. I think at times that he’s too much of a nice guy to go out there and take the ball from these guys when they’re struggling. He’s too enamored of letting guys work out of their own messes. It’s dumb.
Also, it was stupid to leave Schilling in after Doug and Giambi had reached on hits. (Remember that Giambi’s single was about two feet shy of clearing the green monster. Not a good sign.) Yes, Curt had pitched a great game up until that point, and his pitch count was fine, but it was obvious after those two hits that he was out of gas, and Derek Jeter kills guys whose fastballs or splitters have suddenly lost their movement. Francona has always been hesitant, perhaps even fearful, of taking the ball from Curt in the middle of an inning. Again, very Grady-like.
Gee
17 years ago
Tinisoli, I think you can make plausible cases for pulling either pitcher, and your point is taken. But I think there were was reason to leave them in, too–Schill especially. His pitch count was downright low, IIRC he started the 8th below 70. I don’t think he was out of gas. I think he just threw a mistake to Jeter. (He had him at 1-2.) Anyone in the ‘pen could have done the same. Gagné is a tougher call, but again he had gotten the first two out, and a visit to the mound was a plausible way to get him back on track.
Anyway, my point is not to refute your arguments for pulling either guy, which are, as I say, reasonable. I just think the Grady comparison is waaaaaaay over the top. Grady’s failure to pull people at critical moments really was unfathomable and unsupportable. I’d rather have Tito feeling his way through when to use the hook, than either a soporific zombie like Grady or a Torre-type furiously grinding his bullpen to horsemeat.
tinisoli
17 years ago
I don’t think the Gagné scene the other night was an example of Francona feeling his way through when to use the hook. He sat there, hoping that Gagné would not give up another walk or another hit. He had Farrell pay Gagné a visit, and then he watched some more. Anyone else watching the game could see that Gagné didn’t have his shit together. Waiting for him to gather himself and suddenly relocate the strike zone with something other than a straight fastball was an exercise in wishful thinking and strangely ignorant of Gagné’s recent history as a Sox reliever. If you see Papelbon load the bases with two outs, maybe you let him try to get that 3rd out——because he’s earned that kind of trust. But Gagné had been terrible, so it was just a dumb gamble to see if he could get that 3rd out. If the Sox had been 7 games up, then fine, the manager should take some of that breathing room and use it to find out about the enigmas on the roster. But they weren’t 7 games up, and that breathing room is all but gone.
modonnel
17 years ago
The Red Sox were up 7 games — in the wild card race. Mo matter what Gagne did in that game, the Sox were going to be playing in October.
maineiac
17 years ago
Well we are 2 games up….or really one game. What am I talking about, well because the Skanks won the regular season series they win the division in a tie. So we really only have one game to give. Please Sox win the division!