June 26th, 2006 → 9:34 pm @ Seth Mnookin
This is the second in an occasional series of Sneak Peeks from Feeding the Monster. In the section below, which takes place in January 2003, the Red Sox debate whether to offer David Ortiz, recently released by the Minnesota Twins, a one-year contract. This excerpt is in honor of Ortiz’s walk-off single in the 12th inning of today’s Red Sox-Phillies game, Ortiz’s second walk-off hit in as many games and his 13th game-winner (10th in the regular season) since signing with the Sox.
At the beginning of the offseason, the team had compiled a list of about 15 first basemen and designated hitters who might be available for a discount. They’d gotten Jeremy Giambi and still hoped to get Kevin Millar. As a backup, they had pursued options like free agents Brad Fullmer, Greg Colbrunn, and Travis Lee. Another name on the list belonged to a burly 27-year-old Dominican left-handed hitter: David Ortiz. …
Within the Red Sox, Ortiz intrigued virtually everyone involved in the discussions. One of the scouts loved his swing–it was, he said, a thing of beauty. After looking over his hit location charts, Theo Epstein’s crew thought he was likely the type of player who would be able to take advantage of the left field wall in Fenway. Bill James liked the fact that, while he hit only .234 in 2001, his secondary average was almost .400. (“That’s my kind of player,” James says.) Dave Jauss, a scout who was down in the Dominican Republic for the winter, reported that in the winter-ball leagues on the island, Ortiz was a superstar, as big as Manny Ramirez or the Montreal Expos’ Vladimir Guerrero. Finally, Epstein was consciously trying to find players who could help make the Red Sox clubhouse a more positive place to be, and Ortiz, like Millar, had a reputation for being both outgoing and upbeat, which Epstein felt was crucial at that moment in the team’s history. …
That’s not to say the Red Sox didn’t have reservations. Most pressing were their concerns about Ortiz’s age–foreign-born players are known to claim to be younger than they really are so it will seem as if their peak years are still ahead of them, and Ortiz had given his age as 17 when he broke into professional baseball in the States a decade earlier. Instead of simply throwing up his hands, Epstein asked James to see if he could find a way to determine anything further about Ortiz’s likely age. “I did a study of his career progression up to that point, identifying historical players who had very similar career paths up to that point in time, and concluded that, on average, they were exactly the age that David claimed to be,” says James. “That was a fun little study. I had never done anything like that before.” With that settled, Epstein made his move, acquiring the player that would change both Epstein’s and the Red Sox’s futures. On January 22, 2003, the Red Sox signed David Ortiz to a one-year, $1.25 million deal.
“We knew he had breakout potential,” says Epstein. … Still, not long before the Sox signed Ortiz they inked former Yankees pitcher Ramiro Mendoza to a two-year deal worth $6.5 million and, as Bill James notes, “We weren’t any more excited about the one than we were about the other.”
There are many more exclusive details about the acquisition of David Ortiz, the work of Bill James, and the formation of the Best Hitting Team Ever Assembled in Feeding the Monster, out July 11 from Simon & Schuster.
Post Categories: Bill James & David Ortiz & Feeding the Monster Sneak Peeks & Red Sox & Theo Epstein
June 26th, 2006 → 6:40 pm @ Seth Mnookin
October 17, 2004: David Ortiz hits a home run in the bottom of the 12th to win Game 4 of the ALCS.
October 18, 2004: David Ortiz muscles a single into center field to drive home the winning run in the 14th inning of Game 5 of the ALCS.
June 24, 2006: David Ortiz hits a two-run shot in the bottom of the tenth for his second walk-off homer of the month.
June 26, 2006: One game (and one rain delay) later, Ortiz muscles a single into center field to drive home the winning run in the bottom of the 12th.
At this rate, they’re going to need to updatethis on a daily basis.
Next up: the Mets. Right arm of god, meet the left arm of god.
Post Categories: 2004 Playoffs & David Ortiz & Red Sox & Walkoffs
June 19th, 2006 → 1:24 am @ Seth Mnookin
In the bottom of the seventh inning of tonight’s Braves-Red Sox game, Rudy Seanez came in to pitch to Jeff Francoeur with two on, two out, and the Sox leading 3-2—and Francoeur hit Seanez’s first pitch over the left-field wall to give the Braves a two run lead. Which means Seanez screwed up, right? Well, not exactly. Jason Varitek gave a target on the lower left-hand corner of the strike zone, and Seanez hit his spot almost perfectly with a nice slider…or he would have, anyway, if Francoeur hadn’t deposited the ball into the stands.
There’s plenty to second-guess here, to be sure. Francoeur is a free swinger—he has only five walks on the year, to go along with 57 strikeouts, 15 home runs, and 52 RBIs—and Seanez’s pitch was obviously hittable. But with two men on, the Red Sox didn’t want to give Francoeur a 1-0 count, on which he’s hitting .481 this season. And Seanez didn’t throw a hanging slider or leave a pitch out over the heart of the plate—it just nipped the outside corner.
Francouer’s 3-run shot certainly won’t be one of the turning points in the season. The Sox scored six two-out runs in the eighth and went on to win the game, 10-7. And Seanez’s role in the game probably won’t be remembered for long, either, except for those fans who’ve already decided they hate the man. But it is a good example of how baseball offers up numerous daily illustrations of how a good process doesn’t always lead to good results. The Red Sox—with a front office that has a well thought out reasons for virtually every decision they make—offer almost daily illustrations of this. After the 2002 season, the Sox let Cliff Floyd walk rather than pay him the eight or so million he likely would have gotten in arbitration; then, in a move that was criticized at the time, they signed Jeremy Giambi, Bill Mueller, David Ortiz, and Todd Walker for a combined $8.8 million. Before this season, the Sox traded Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for hard-hitting outfielder Wily Mo Pena. That move was, for the most part, treated as good news: with the Red Sox’s outfield in flux, the injury-prone, left-handed Trot Nixon manning right, and the need to start turning over a veteran team that was in danger of rapidly aging, picking up a 24-year old power-hitting outfielder who had a couple of years left before he reached free agency made a lot of sense, especially when the cost was a pitcher who threw up a 4.52 ERA last year. Of course, now that Pena’s on the DL, Arroyo’s 8-3 with a 2.51 ERA, and the Red Sox starting rotation appears to be in danger of falling apart, that move is drawing plenty of criticism.
Hindight, of course, is 20-20, and baseball fans (and sportswriters) have a rich history of knee-jerk reactions in response to whatever happened last night (or last inning). But indulging that tendency, especially in regard to a Red Sox team owned by John Henry and Tom Werner and run by Theo Epstein, would mean missing out on a lot of opportunities to think about and learn why a given decision was made. During spring training this year, Epstein told me the reason he loved working for Henry was that both men believed in making decisions based on carefully articulated processes. That doesn’t mean never paying players more than they might be worth according to a strict statistical analysis—there are some decisions that need to be made for stability, or because of excessive turnover. But it does mean coming up with a plan and sticking to it. And if the team decides certain players are only worth risking three years on, well, that’s what they Sox will offer.
“It doesn’t always work out perfectly,” Epstein said that day. “That’s life. But we believe that if we come up with a plan and stick to it, it’ll work out more often than it doesn’t.”
There’s more–lots more–about the Red Sox’s management philosophy and all the roster moves and in-game decisions of the last several years in Feeding the Monster, out July 11.
Post Categories: Baseball & David Ortiz & Jason Varitek & Red Sox ownership & Sports Reporters & Theo Epstein
June 15th, 2006 → 2:50 pm @ Seth Mnookin
Meet the new contestant for Boston’s favorite ballboy. Or ballperson, as the case may be. (Link via Deadspin, via some guy videotaping his DVR.)
Post Categories: David Ortiz & Deadspin & Kelly Barons & Rampaging morons & Red Sox
