December 7th, 2006 → 9:50 am @ Seth Mnookin
Apparently, Andy Pettitte is close to signing a one-year deal with the Yankees for somewhere around $14 or $15 million. Speculation is that if Pettitte ends up in New York, Roger will too; indeed, the Times pretty much says that if Andy jumped off a bridge, Roger would too. (They do look awfully cute together.)
That might be true — I honestly have no idea (although I do know that last year the Rocket was deciding between the Sox and the ‘Stros; the Yankees weren’t really in the final picture). So for argument’s sake, let’s assume that it is, and let’s assume that a season of Andy and a half-season of Roger is going to cost somewhere north of $53 million ($14.5 for Pettitte, $18 for a half-season of Clemens, a bit north of $20 million in a luxury tax hit). Good deal for New York? Last year, Pettitte’s WHIP was higher than it’s been since 2000 and Roger is, after all, 44. (At least he’s not in Orlando, pathetically trolling for a job.)
So I’ll leave it up to. Make your voices heard. I’ll tally at the end of the day.
Post Categories: 2006 Hot Stove Season & Andy Pettitte & Roger Clemens & Yankees
December 7th, 2006 → 9:40 am @ Seth Mnookin
Jenny — if that really is her name — raised a question in the Johnny Jesus post below. To wit:
“Seth, can you clarify the Josh Beckett deal for me? The way I understand what you wrote about it in the book, it was railroaded through by Lucchino in an attempt to shift media and fan attention away from internal problems in the wake of Theo’s resignation. This was done over the objection of several baseball ops guys, specifically Jed Hoyer. Given the close relationship between Jed and Theo and thus the probable similarity in their viewpoints, I have been assuming all year that had Theo still been GM, that trade would not have occurred. Is this your take? Every time I try to advance this view to others, they call me a ballwashing Theo apologist or something of that ilk. One sportswriter (Bill Madden?) even wrote in all seriousness that the trade was Theo’s fault because he was “in the building.” Some help here? I know it’s not Damon-related, but that section of the book was really self-explanatory.”
I’d say that’s an oversimplifaction, but an oversimplification that has some connection to what went down. I wrote in the book that “Hoyer, in constant communication with Epstein, had been wary about making the trade, but Lucchino had been eager to get it done”; I go on to quote someone with an ownership stake in the team to say that people with the long-term interests of the club were advocating holding off and people who wanted to shift focus away from the front office fiasco wanted it to go down.
And that’s all I said on the matter, out of both space concerns and because at the time I wrote that (back in April) it was unclear, to say the least, how that signing would turn out.* That certainly was true: Larry was the trade’s largest advocate; he got most of the credit; it occurred at a time when the daily headlines were full of “this is as bad as it has been since the days of the Duke” type stories. But there wasn’t a Larry camp that was completely gung-ho and a Jed-Ben-Theo camp that was completely opposed. Instead, it was more of a 60-40/40-60 deal, meaning those in favor of making it were in favor of it 60-40 and those opposed were opposed 40-60. What’s more, those opposed were more worried about Josh’s shoulder than anything else…and that turned out not to be much of a concern.
Hope that’s a little more clear.
* In speaking with a senior member of the baseball ops staff late in the season (i.e., well after the point at which it became clear that Beckett’s season wasn’t going to be all we’d hoped), said staff member said he wasn’t worried about Beckett’s long-term success because a. he’s young, b. he’s had big-time success before, and c. there’s a natural adjustment period for any young player. I don’t know as much about baseball as the baseball ops staff — to say the least — but I was concerned, and that was mainly because his fastball is as straight as John Wayne and he seemed perpetually concerned about throwing breaking stuff. But we’ll see.
Post Categories: Feeding the Monster reactions & Jed Hoyer & Josh Beckett & Larry Lucchino & Red Sox front office & Theo Epstein
December 6th, 2006 → 10:24 am @ Seth Mnookin
We’ve already heard a lot — and will continue to hear a lot — about how the Red Sox just committed $30 million dollars more to J.D. Drew than they were willing to offer Johnny Damon. Two small things on that tip:
A. That’s simply not true.
B. Drew’s agent — I think he’s some guy name Scott Boras — pretty much guaranteed Damon wouldn’t return to the Sox when he outright lied to the front office about what other deals were on the table.
Honest. I know. I wrote all about it in my book — which all of you should own by now (and have I mentioned it makes a great holiday present?). Here’s a quick excerpt detailing exactly what went down…
December 6th, 2006 → 10:13 am @ Seth Mnookin
…of Barry Bonds trolling the winter meetings in desperate search of a contract. It sure is hard to imagine Hammerin’ Hank or the Babe down in Orlando hoping to interest a team in his services.
Post Categories: 2006 Hot Stove Season & Barry Bonds & Steroids
December 6th, 2006 → 10:12 am @ Seth Mnookin
Last night brought a couple of much-anticipated Red Sox moves: the signings of J.D. Drew (5 years, $70 million) and Julio Lugo (4 years, $36 million). From a pure economic standpoint, these signings are either crazy expensive (you’re not going to hear the end of “but they could have signed Johnny for $52 million” for a good while) or pretty damn cheap (is J.D. worth $4 million more a year than Gary Matthews? Hell yeah).
J.D. will come to Boston with a lot of expectations…a lot of low expectations, that is. There were petitions urging the Sox front office not to sign the guy. He’s been repeatedly labeled a lily-livered pansy, a guy who’s soft, who can’t play hurt, who lacks fire.
Here are some thoughts — and observations — on that.
* We’d all do well to check out exactly how good a player Drew is. He has the 25th highest slugging percentage of all active players, and the 15th highest among active players under 35. He’s posted a career line of .286, .393, .512. His OPS is .905, compared to .924 for David Ortiz (and an otherworldly 1.011 for Manny). And he’s a better fielder (and baserunner) than either of the Sox’s Big Two.
* I have a hard time believing that a player gets to be a major leaguer while being truly “soft,” just as I think it’s usually a load of crap when we all debate about whether this or that player can or can’t handle being booed. By the time you reach the majors, you’ve pushed through enough so that you damn well better be able handle some catcalls. And it’s incredibly difficult to make the physical commitment to being a professional athlete while being a big-time wuss. Drew makes me nervous, but not because I think he’s a crybaby; he makes me nervous because I worry he might have one of those bodies that’s just not that durable. If that’s the case, we just committed to five years of Drew renting space on the trainer’s table.
So why the rep? It could be because, unlike, say, Trot Nixon, Drew comes off as a more passive player — there’s not the helmut slamming or frequent cursing. (Drew and Trot have averaged pretty much the exact same number of games played per year in their careers. Go figure.) Drew’s also never particularly endeared himself to fans, so when Manny sits out for last month of the season despite a clean MRI and medical clearance from the team, it’s because he knows his body better than anyone, yada yada yada. But we’re all too ready to label Drew, who’s not only never played in Boston but has never played in the American League, as a bust from the get-go. Maybe he will be. But let’s give him a chance.
Tony Massarotti has a little item showing what the Red Sox’s lineup would look like if the season started tomorrow. I’ll throw in career BAs, OBPs, and SLGs:
Julio Lugo, .277, .340, .402
Coco Crisp, .282, .329, .416
David Ortiz, .283, .374, .550
Manny Ramirez, .314, .411, .600
J.D. Drew, .286, .393, .512
Mike Lowell, .273, .339, .463
Jason Varitek, .269, .348, .450
Kevin Youkilis, .275, .379, .423
Dustin Pedroia, NA
Papi, Manny, and J.D. wouldn’t exactly be a modern-day Murderer’s Row — Ruth and Gehrig both had slugging percentages of over .750! in 1927 — but they’d be pretty damn good.
Meanwhile, the assumption is that any effort to trade Manny is losing steam. I can only assume that means there’ll be a news conference announcing his new destination within the next couple of hours…
Post Categories: 2006 Hot Stove Season & J.D. Drew & Julio Lugo
December 5th, 2006 → 6:49 pm @ Seth Mnookin
Every now and then, I start to wonder why I write about baseball on my blog when I could get paid (at least a little) by writing about it for one of those legitimate-type publications. Then I write for one of those legitimate type publications and remember that they’re interested in things like “facts” and “lucid arguments” and “coherent sentences.”
Which is to say, I wrote a piece for one of those legitmate-type publications (Slate, actually)…so if you’re curious about what I sound like when I’m forced to be lucid and coherent, here’s a piece about why I think GMs are making so many stupid deals this offseason.
Post Categories: 2006 Hot Stove Season & Slate
December 5th, 2006 → 9:43 am @ Seth Mnookin
Lots of news today…about how there’s not lots of news. Theo says he’ll be focusing on other things and only listening to teams’ offers for Manny, a player for whom the Sox — surprise! — say they want fair value for, preferably in the form of a closer. Shaughnessy talks about how much more fun life was in the good old days; he also reminds people he used to walk eight miles to school in the raging snow. And it was uphill both ways. Teams are still going to spend outrageous sums of money for mid-level players. And Daisuke Matsuzaka remains unsigned. Meanwhile, I’ll be gone for much of the day, which inevitably means all of the big news to come out of the winter meetings will happen in the next six hours. Such is life…
Post Categories: 2006 Hot Stove Season & 2006 Winter Meetings & Plus ca change
