November 14th, 2006 → 10:52 am @ Seth Mnookin
Yesterday, the Rookie of the Year awards were announced. In the AL, Jonathan Papelbon lost out to Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander, which isn’t much of a surprise; Papelbon had a great year but also got injured, while Verlander will likely get some Cy Young consideration, pitched 118 more innings (186 to 68.3), and was a lychpin of a pennant-winning team’s rotation. (It’s interesting to note that Verlander was the second overall pick in 2004; Paps was taken in the fourth round of 2003.) Of course, that’s not all the Red Sox-related RoY news: former Sox prospect Hanley Ramirez won the NL’s award.
Hanley’s award isn’t going to dampen criticism of the front office. Ramirez, who was traded to the Marlins along with Anibal Sanchez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, made $327,000 this year, while Sanchez made less; Lowell and Beckett combined made about $13 million more in combined salaries. I’ve relied on the Sox’s desire to both get younger and gain more flexibility as an argument in favor of all sorts of Red Sox moves (trading for Coco instead of finding a way to re-sign Johnny, for instance), and, on its face, this trade seems to be an example of the exact opposite strategy.
I’ve also argued that the unique pressures of playing in Boston make being a rookie in Florida a lot different from being a rookie on the Red Sox. Would Fenway have gone into revolt if Hanley had hit below the Mendoza line for a full month, as he did for the Marlins (.190 in June)? Would Ramirez, who hit .235 versus the AL East (12 for 51), had as much success playing in the exponentially more difficult American League? For that matter, would Sanchez, who twirled a no hitter, have had a breakout year?
In September, I took both sides of this argument on successive days. (Part one of that schizophrenic debate was an excuse to talk about the Sox’s scouting department, which has gone through a considerable makeover recently.) And today? Well…I’m not sure. I do think playing in Boston is unique; on the other hand, I also see merit in the argument that if a player can’t deal with some booing by the time he reaches the majors, he’s gonna have a tough time making it…an argument that more than one members of the Sox’s baseball ops office have made to me.
I still see the rationale for last winter’s trade, which at the time was said to be one of the difference-making moves of the offseason; I also remain resolute in my belief that whatever the Red Sox happen to be doing, they’re doing it for a good reason. (That said, the Beckett trade occurred during the peak of last year’s Theo’s-gone-the-Sox-are-in-total-turmoil period, which means that a) it’s hard to use it as being representative of what the baseball ops team would have done in a vacuum and b) the notion that the move was in part an effort to distract the locals from the controversy-du-jour has to be taken into consideration. I discuss this trade — and the various possibilities therein — in the book.) Still, the totality of the team’s moves — this trade, jettisoning Arroyo (and Andy Marte and Kelly Shoppach), losing out on Damon because of what likely was a lack of aggressiveness, undervaluing and overvaluing Doug Mirabelli in the same year — will need to be considered…at some point down the road.
And by down the road, I don’t mean next month. Pedro’s defection to the Mets is a perfect example of why it’s impossible (and sometimes dishonest) to make grand pronouncements about this or that trade or free-agent signing before the totality of the decision’s repercussions have been felt, which means, just like we’ll need to wait until 2007 to fully evaluate not re-signing Pedro (a decision which a looks pretty good right about now), we’ll need to wait until 2009 to make a full reckoning of this move.
That said, the early grades on this year’s Hot Stove moves would have to give the Yankees the edge, regardless of what happens with Matsuzaka: so far, New York has essentially gotten four pitchers for free: Chris Britton, who came to New York for the $4 million the Yankees would have had to pay to buy out Jaret Wright’s contract; and former Tigers pitching prospects Humberto Sanchez, Kevin Whelan and Anthony Claggett, who will be outfitted in pinstripes after a smart option-and-trade of Gary Sheffield. (If the Tigers recent success in developing pitching talent is any indication, this could end up being a huge move a couple of years hence. And even if none of these three pan out, New York has restocked its minor league system.)
So, there you have it. A post without a clear argument on one side or the other. Like I said, food for thought.
Post Categories: 2006 Hot Stove Season & Hanley Ramirez & Jonathan Papelbon & Josh Beckett & Red Sox ownership & Yankees
September 1st, 2006 → 10:32 pm @ Seth Mnookin
It’s reverse lock week: take one Kyle Snyder, mix with longtime nemesis Ted Lilly, subtract an injured Jonathan Papelbon, and what do you get? I’m surprised you even had to ask: a 2-1 Red Sox win. (I’ll hold off getting too worried about Papelbon until Dr. Gill announces that “it’s only a flesh wound.” OK, fine: I’m plenty worried about Papelbon; it’s never good when a pitcher grabs at his shoulder in pain. At some point the non-injured guys on the team are going to start wearing suits of armor, like that dude in the lottery ad.)
Anyway, that’s (hopefully) it for me until Tuesday: I’m heading to KC for a wedding. I’ll also be eating the best food on Earth. With any luck, that won’t put me in a food coma I’ll be able to stop by next door as well. Have a good long weekend, everyone. Remember to hug your loved ones.
(Oh, and: this whole “away for the weekend and theoretically not bringing a computer or checking email” thing means I’ll likely be a bit slower than usual about getting to and posting comments. Don’t worry — it’ll all get up there eventually.)
Post Categories: Jonathan Papelbon & Labor Day weekend & Oblique references to The Holy Grail
August 25th, 2006 → 1:06 am @ Seth Mnookin
…and one bloody finger. The good news? Apparently this isn’t the result of Beckett’s (in)famous blister issues.
(Also? I really hate the Angels broadcasters. And because I don’t want to be a hypocrite, I’ll leave it at that.)
(And: If you only watch one highlight from last night’s game, it shouldn’t be Big Papi’s homer or Lil’ Papi striking out the last two batters of the game. It most definitely should be Mirabelli’s deke to nail Juan Rivera at the plate in the bottom of the 7th. When I wake up, I’ll still have this same shit-eating grin on my face.)
(Finally: there’s something so satisfying about a visiting stadium erupting in rabid cheers when the Sox pull out a nailbiter. Shoot, they should just bring “Dirty Water” on the road.)
Post Categories: Broadcasting & Doug Mirabelli & Jonathan Papelbon & Josh Beckett
July 15th, 2006 → 12:49 pm @ Seth Mnookin
Before the season began, Peter Gammons predicted that, should be remain healthy, Josh Beckett would be the American League Cy Young Award winner. Well, so far, Beckett has remained healthy, and it appears as if 2006 could be the first time in his career that he tops 200 innings. But the Cy Young? Not so much. Beckett’s 11-5 record shows nothing so much as how deceptive a pitcher’s won-loss record can be; his 5.12 ERA is more indicative of how he’s pitched this season. Indeed, last night’s 7-run, 8-hit, 4 1/3 inning effort is beginning to feel disturbingly familiar.
So what’s the problem? It doesn’t seem to be his stuff: he began last night’s game by getting Jason Kendall to whiff on a 97-mile-per-hour fastball—and he’s reached 95 in almost every start this year. Here’s one theory, and it’s one that’s at least been discussed within Yawkey Way: Beckett has never learned how to pitch.
At first blush, that probably seems like a ridiculous statement. Beckett shutout the Yankees on short rest to clinch the 2003 World Series for the Marlins, and has been cited as one of baseball’s marquee pitchers for as long as he’s been in the game. But that could be the problem. For as long as Beckett’s pitched, he’s been someone blessed with preternatural ability and lauded for his skills. In 1999, he was the first high school righthander to be selected second overall in the draft in more than two decades. Baseball America named him the top high school prospect in the country, and he was USA Today‘s High School Pitcher of the Year. He spent only one full season in the minors (2000), and has been a full-time major league starter since he was 22. Compare his development to that of Jonathan Papelbon, a college closer whom the Red Sox converted to a starter in the minors, asking him to develop a fuller repertoire of pitches. In the NL—or, as us American League snobs like to call it, AAAA—Beckett could, more often than not, rely on his natural ability to overpower and overwhelm the opposition. In the AL, he’ll get his share of strike-outs, but he’ll also find that there are plenty of hitters who can use the power he generates to smash a ball into the stands. (It’s no accident that Beckett leads the league with 27 home runs allowed.) When he’s not blowing pitchers away, he’s often getting lit up.
So what does that mean going forward? When it’s working for him, Beckett has a jaw-droppingly nasty curve, and there’s no reason he can’t learn to mix in a little Greg Maddux with his Nolan Ryan. (This is what’s allowed Pedro Martinez to be one of the all-time greats. Witness Game 5 of the ALDS in 1999, when Martinez—essentially pitching on guile and guts—shut down the Indians without any of the power he used to whiff five of the first six batters in that year’s All-Star Game.) But that transition is going to take a bit of time…
An aside: I’m convinced the reaction to Beckett as compared to Matt Clement should serve as case study A in how a player’s demeanor, and perhaps even his physical appearance, can have as much to do with fan reaction as his on-field performance does. Last year, Clement finished at 13-6 with a 4.57 ERA. He helped anchor an exceedingly shaky rotation’s first-half. And he was hit in the head by a screaming line drive. But Clement–asthmatic, hunched over, in need of glasses–appears kind of shlubby, and, even though he never tries to make excuses, he’s often looks as if he’s sporting the Derek Lowe Face. Beckett, on the other hand, looks and talks like a warrior. Last year’s reaction to Schilling as compared to Keith Foulke is another example. The Sox wouldn’t have won the World Series without either one, and Foulke’s performance in the ALCS was as gutsy and brave as anything I’ve seen. But Schilling is well spoken; Foulke is defensive and has a tendency to lash out. Schilling was consistently applauded just for making it out to the mound; Foulke took as much abuse as anyone on the team.
Post Categories: Baseball & Curt Schilling & Jonathan Papelbon & Josh Beckett & Keith Foulke & Matt Clement & The Derek Lowe Face
June 20th, 2006 → 7:15 pm @ Seth Mnookin
Watch Jonathan Papelbon as he tries to make Red Sox fans forget about the loss of Bronson Arroyo. (Link via Deadspin.)
Alternate headline: So this is how rookies augment their major league minimum-salaries.
Alternate headline #2: Further proof that the only way car salesmen ever get to hang out with ballplayers is to pay them.
Post Categories: Bad Advertising & Bronson Arroyo & Car Salesmen & Jonathan Papelbon
June 19th, 2006 → 1:37 am @ Seth Mnookin
* Braves fans are pathetic. After 14-straight division titles, this is a city that deserves to have a baseball team that sucks.
* Did Brian Runge, the homeplate umpire in Sunday’s game, remind anyone else of Leslie Nielsen in Naked Gun 2 1/2? Man, did Runge get a kick out of ringing guys up.
* If Jonathan Papelbon isn’t cast as a stone-cold killer in a teen-slasher movie, Hollywood is missing out on an amazing opportunity.
Post Categories: Atlanta Braves & Crappy Fans & Jonathan Papelbon & Leslie Nielsen
June 16th, 2006 → 12:38 am @ Seth Mnookin
This is the second in a series of outtakes from interviews done for Feeding the Monster, to be published on July 11 by Simon & Schuster. This interview with Jonathan Papelbon was conducted in the Red Sox clubhouse on September 6, 2005. This year, Papelbon is 1-1 with an American League-leading 20 saves and a 0.28 ERA.
On the differences between the minors and the bigs: Well for me, I knew what I had going at the minor-league level and I knew I was ready to come to the big-league level. But it’s a matter of really learning how the big-league level works and at the same time, coming here and helping to compete to win the pennant race. That’s what it’s all about. Because up here, it’s all about winning. In the minor leagues, it’s all about development, production, stuff like that. Up here, it’s all about winning, period. That’s what I’m here to do, and that’s what I’ve come to realize: that’s all I’m here to do.
On the intensity of playing with the Red Sox: No, I wouldn’t say it’s been overwhelming at all. The game hasn’t been overwhelming. The game hasn’t changed on me a whole lot. I think the thing that has changed is getting used to the traveling—you know, checking your bags with the bell captain, which I’ve never done before. Just things like that, things outside the game like getting to the field. When we were flying from Kansas City, I didn’t know to leave my bags, so I took them with me to the park thinking I’m going to put them on the flight. I didn’t realize the bell captain takes them. And everyone’s like, “This is is big-leagues, you don’t carry your bags here! If somebody sees you carrying your bags they think you work for the team.” That was pretty much the moment where I was like, “All right. I’m really here.”
On playing in Boston: I love it. I love playing here, I love the atmosphere. I grew up playing college ball in this type of atmosphere where you’re expected to win, and I thrive off of it. And right now, I’m just riding the wave and doing everything I possibly can to help the team.
Post Categories: Big League Perks & Feeding the Monster Outtakes & Jonathan Papelbon & Red Sox
